Why It Is Over For Apple (And It is Not What You Think!) RIP Steve Jobs

You would have to really be a long, long way off the grid to have not heard the news by now: Steve Jobs, Apple CEO and TechnoWunderkind, died last week at the age of 56, from a brutal bout with a nasty cancer of the pancreas.  During his triumphant return to Apple he revolutionized the personal music player with the iPod, dragged the illegal music “sharing” business to legitimacy through the iTunes Store, created the smart-phone niche with the iPhone and then taught Microsoft nerds how to make a real tablet computer with the iPad.

With all that space age, whiz kid, Star Trek, OMG is it really that small (and expensive?) cult-like devotion and innovation–why do I think it is the beginning of the end for Apple?

The reason is not Steve Job’s death, the “Apple Geniuses” ( yes they really have the chutzpah to call themselves that) Jobs left in charge will steer the ocean liner that is one of the biggest companies in the world on a straight path, avoiding the icebergs, for now.

It is not due to a lack of cool products already in the marketplace–I just bought an iPad2 last month and people were lining up for the new iPhone 4s too.

I am predicting that is will be over for Apple, soon, maybe next year,and in no more than 3 years, due to the hardware centric business model they continue to use, in spite of having their hat handed to them by Microsoft during the 1980s.  Quick refresher for younger techies: Apple built a really cool personal computer with an easy to use UI (user interface) that many people loved (note that emotional and sometimes irrational exuberance evidenced by Apple users borders on religion).  Those people agreed that in many ways it was better than what Microsoft was offering at the time.  So if it was better, why did Apple fail to win substantial market share, where even after 20 years, they only can claim less than 9 percent of the PC market?

The reason they failed then, is the same reason they will fail today–Apple continues to be an idea and invention company that is obsessed with building hardware, not licensing their ideas to other companies who can then improve on their baseline products, like Microsoft did with Windows or like how Google now does with the Android and Honeycomb OS.

So it is not over yet, but RIP Steve Jobs, the best days of Apple are behind us now.

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